Entry Model: Entry Upon Inability To Displace Strongly

HYPOTHESIS: Data indicates that once price has failed to undergo strong displacement through liquidity, that a reasoning move is probable to occur. However, my ability to capitalise on these reasoning moves seems to be slight whilst applying entry models that are dependent on internal price action. I hypothesise that rather than placing dependence on internal timeframes to provide me with an entry model, it may be both probable and profitable for me to enter into a trade once price has undergone weak displacement and the 15M candle has closed. This is supported by the probability of the reasoning move being undergone and what I have continuously been seeing; price failing to displace and then not moving beyond the previous candles high or low and rather undergoing the demanded reasoning move.

NOTE: To test this hypothesis, data will be split into two sections, one labelled “Supports”, demonstrating data that supports this notion, and one labelled “Disproves”, demonstrating data that disproves this hypothesis. Under each section, a sentence labelled “Totals” will be included, which will highlight the total quantity of examples within each section and the total R-Multiple. Each example will include a sentence titled “Structure”, to be answered with “In Favour”, “Against”, Lack Of (Probable)”, or “Lack Of (Improbable)”. A further sentence titled “Proportionate Size of SL” will be included, which will demonstrate the size of the forward tests SL in comparison to the volatility employed by the initiation 15M candle, and will be calculated by dividing the size of the SL (in terms of pips), by the size of the 15M candle (in terms of pips). A dot-point underneath this titled “Size of SL” will be included, to demonstrate the size of the SL in terms of pips to aid me in determining the profitability of this model. A further sentence titled “RR” will be included, which will highlight the expected RR from the trade from it being exactly as it needs to be. Another sentence titled “Initiation Liquidity” will be included, which is to specify the liquidity that initiated the reasoning move. A further sentence titled “Supplementary Confluences” will be included, as a main component defining the probability of a reasoning move occurring following 15M weak displacement, and will be answered with; “FVG’s”, “Inverse FVG’s”, “Already Filled FVG’s”, “Already Filled Inverse FVG’s”, “Conglomerate”, or “N/A”. A final sentence titled “Result” will be included which will highlight whether the example was a win or loss, and the associated R-Multiple. However, if the example is to fall in the disproves section and the trade to result in a loss, a final sentence in the form of a dot-point underneath the “Result” sentence will be included, titled “Result Reason”, simply identifying why the forward test resulted in a loss. There are 4 possible answers to this sentence; 1. Reasoning move was not undergone, referring to the improbable happening and price simply not undergoing the demanded reasoning move. 2. Reasoning move was undergone, referring to the trade being stopped out but the probable reasoning move being undergone, highlighting a flaw with the positioning of the SL. 3. Giving effect to other data, i.e, the liquidity that was weakly displaced through was continuously respected, but the trade was stopped out as further liquidity was swept, or something alike. 4. Price moved improbably, potentially meaning that there was a probable conglomerate of confluences, but price sought only a weak confluence prior to stopping the forward test out. All data will be derived between the times of 1 hour prior to London session and 1 hour prior to NY session, and will be exactly as it needs to be, reflecting all other probabilities I have discussed. Furthermore, only probable scenario’s will be included (for example, where there is no supplementary confluence, the example will not be included).

CONCLUSIONS:

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Probable Components:

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Probable (OVERALL): 80% (44:11) & 116.80 R-Multiple.

OVERALL PROFITABILITY: 59.31%

Probable (GU): 80% (25:6) & 71.72 R-Multiple.

Maximum Risk, Therefore (1.27000 Average Price of GBP/USD):

Profitability by Applying Maximum Risk Per Trade & $8.76 Commission (0.175%): 27.36%

Probable (GJ): 75% (19:5) & 45.08 R-Multiple.

Average Maximum Risk, Therefore (1.27000 Average Price of GBP/USD):

Profitability by Applying Maximum Risk Per Trade & $8.76 Commission (0.175%): 31.95%

SUPPORTS

TOTALS: 44 & 127.80 R-Multiple.

19/2/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.16.

  • Size of SL: 4.8 Pips.

RR: 6.29.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.33 R-Multiple.

21/3/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.13.

  • Size of SL: 7.3.

RR: 2.08.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Already Filled Inverse FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.08 R-Multiple.

10/4/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.20.

  • Size of SL: 3.1.

RR: 4.23.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 4.23 R-Multiple.

9/4/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.25.

  • Size of SL: 2.7.

RR: 2.96.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 2.96 R-Multiple.

15/1/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.13.

  • Size of SL: 1.4.

RR: 1.21.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 1.21 R-Multiple.

7/5/2025 (GU) ✅

Structure: In Favour.

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.28.

  • Size of SL: 3.8.

RR: 1.42.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.42 R-Multiple.

7/3/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.21.

  • Size of SL: 1.9.

RR: 3.84.

Initiation Liquidity: 4H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 3.84 R-Multiple.

12/12/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.27.

  • Size of SL: 8.1.

RR: 2.21.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.21 R-Multiple.

22/10/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.28.

  • Size of SL: 6.7.

RR: 2.54.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 2.54 R-Multiple.

18/11/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.17.

  • Size of SL: 1.7.

RR: 2.94.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.94 R-Multiple.

22/5/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.24.

  • Size of SL: 6.6.

RR: 3.47.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 3.17 R-Multiple.

28/5/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.17.

  • Size of SL: 1.5.

RR: 6.33.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 6.33 R-Multiple (Same level as objective was reached).

1/4/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.11.

  • Size of SL: 1.3.

RR: 17.00.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 8.23 R-Multiple.

31/1/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Hourly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.23.

  • Size of SL: 3.1.

RR: 4.23.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 4.23 R-Multiple.

28/2/2024 (GJ) ✅

Structure: In Favour.

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.38.

  • Size of SL: 9.0.

RR: 1.58.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.58 R-Multiple.

9/10/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.10.

  • Size of SL: 0.9.

RR: 3.56.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 3.56 R-Multiple.

10/6/2025 (GU) ✅

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.13.

  • Size of SL: 1.7.

RR: 2.35.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 2.35 R-Multiple.

31/1/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Hourly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.12.

  • Size of SL: 1.5.

RR: 5.80.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 5.80 R-Multiple.

17/6/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.26.

  • 4.6.

RR: 3.46.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Already Filled FVG’s.

Result: Win, 3.46 R-Multiple.

8/7/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.16.

  • Size of SL: 1.5.

RR: 6.53.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Already Filled FVG’s.

Result: Win, 5.40 R-Multiple.

22/7/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.18.

  • Size of SL: 3.0.

RR: 6.17.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: Inverse FVG’s.

Result: Win, 6.17 R-Multiple.

28/5/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.19.

  • Size of SL: 1.4.

RR: 3.57.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 3.57 R-Multiple.

12/4/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.10.

  • Size of SL: 2.2.

RR: 2.41.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: Inverse FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.41 R-Multiple.

21/3/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.20.

  • Size of SL: 6.5.

RR: 2.17.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.66 R-Multiple.

26/3/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.23.

  • Size of SL: 6.5.

RR: 2.72.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 2.72 R-Multiple.

24/4/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Hourly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.34.

  • Size of SL: 3.3.

RR: 1.91.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.91 R-Multiple.

11/9/2023 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Hourly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.15.

  • Size of SL: 1.6.

RR: 1.81.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.25 R-Multiple.

17/11/2023 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.16.

  • Size of SL: 2.3.

RR: 1.52.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 1.52 R-Multiple.

8/1/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.16.

  • Size of SL: 2.9.

RR: 2.76.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 1.93 R-Multiple.

22/12/2023 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.30.

  • Size of SL: 4.4.

RR: 3.34.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Inverse FVG’s.

Result: Win, 3.34 R-Multiple.

4/12/2023 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.27.

  • Size of SL: 6.5.

RR: 2.68.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Inverse FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.68 R-Multiple.

20/11/2023 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.33.

  • Size of SL: 8.7 & 1.36%.

RR: 1.18.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Already Filled FVG’s.

Result: Win, 1.18 R-Multiple & 1.44%.

14/2/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.21.

  • Size of SL: 4.5.

RR: 6.42.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.53 R-Multiple.

1/5/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.21

  • Size of SL: 2.0.

RR: 11.10.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 3.95 R-Multiple.

4/6/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.25.

  • Size of SL: 6.0.

RR: 2.30.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 2.30 R-Multiple.

14/3/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.42.

  • Size of SL: 4.8.

RR: 1.29.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.29 R-Multiple.

24/6/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.28.

  • Size of SL: 2.4.

RR: 2.54.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 2.54 R-Multiple.

2/4/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.22.

  • Size of SL: 2.1.

RR: 1.95.

Initiation Liquidity: 4H Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Win, 1.71 R-Multiple.

29/5/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.23.

  • Size of SL: 3.9.

RR: 5.46.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 3.87 R-Multiple.

22/8/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.22.

  • Size of SL: 1.4.

RR: 4.07.

Initiation liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 4.07 R-Multiple.

20/3/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.36.

  • Size of SL: 2.8.

RR: 1.71.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 1.71 R-Multiple.

29/1/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.13.

  • Size of SL: 1.0.

RR: 2.20.

Initiation Liquidity: 1H LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: N/A.

Result: Win, 2.20 R-Multiple.

17/4/2025 (GJ)

Structure: In Favour.

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.26.

  • Size of SL: 5.3.

RR: 1.23.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 1.23 R-Multiple.

29/2/2024 (GJ)

Structure: In Favour.

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.31.

  • Size of SL: 4.2.

RR: 2.19.

initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Win, 2.19 R-Multiple.

DISPROVES

TOTALS: 11 & - 11.00 R-Multiple.

27/3/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.20.

  • Size of SL: 5.7.

RR: 4.09.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Price moved improbably (not disrespecting the improbable confluence before the objective).

7/2/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.26.

  • Size of SL: 2.0.

RR: 2.10.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Giving effect to other data (further weak displacement was undergone).

15/4/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (4H & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.11.

  • Size of SL: 2.9.

RR: 6.83.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Price moved improbably and respected weak confluences.

11/7/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.18.

  • Size of SL: 1.1.

RR: 5.27.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRBL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Reasoning move was not undergone.

7/5/2025 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Hourly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.26.

  • Size of SL: 4.2.

RR: 2.90.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Price moved improbably and respected an improbable conglomerate of confluences.

25/7/2025 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.11.

  • Size of SL: 1.5.

RR: 4.20.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Already Filled FVG’s.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Reasoning move was not undergone.

25/4/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.21.

  • Size of SL: 6.4.

RR: 3.16.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Reasoning move was not undergone.

28/2/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.10.

  • Size of SL: 2.3.

RR: 3.52.

Initiation Liquidity: 4H Swing Lows.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Just stopped out.

19/1/2024 (GJ)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.34.

  • Size of SL: 6.1.

RR: 4.18.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M LRSL.

Supplementary Confluences: FVG’s.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Reasoning move was not undergone.

17/11/2023 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.15.

  • Size of SL: 3.0.

RR: 4.23.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: The reasoning move was not undergone.

4/4/2024 (GU)

Structure: Lack Of (Weekly & Below).

Proportionate Size of SL: 0.22.

  • Size of SL: 1.6.

RR: 6.69.

Initiation Liquidity: 15M Swing Highs.

Supplementary Confluences: Conglomerate.

Result: Loss, - 1.00 R-Multiple.

  • Result Reason: Giving effect to further data (alternate displacement was undergone as further liquidity was swept).